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NdoJack Research
Bujumbura, בורונדי
פרילנסר
הזמן לפרויקט
אודותינו
The company NdoJack Research is me. Like a moneyless and talented dancer, I have turned to what is less relational and money-consuming; what is highly time-consuming and dependent on personal endeavor and talent, I mean NdoJack Research and to learn to design an iron and glace furnace, which later will be constituted as the project NdoJack Foundry. This company, still a project, plans to supply four following products: a book Applied Econometrics. Tome 1. Time Series, the courses of econometrics and statistics, economic research, and NdoJack Reg1.
What I am writing is an operational methodology — derived from courses of econometrics, personal and PhD’s researches — which addresses an important part of econometric art. It is made of theoretical and applied analyses, and implementations on Eviews. The learning strategy allows you fluid understanding and gets you concrete concepts; and thereby, gets you directly operational. Many concepts are explored, such as modeling, correlation, ordinary least squares, nonlinear least squares, VAR, cointegration, conditional ECM, threshold autoregressive regressions, etc. The book is aimed to students in economics, management, high commercial studies and engineers. The analysis is going to provide them important foundation of the required knowledge. It is aimed to students in econometrics. It is a prerequisite to tackle some aspects of the econometric method. It is aimed to practitioners that are the economists of firms (in charge of studies, statisticians, etc.) and to researchers. Understanding of the text requires the knowledge of algebra, descriptive statistics and mathematical statistics. It is a pleasant book and a concerned reader will find in it the needed notes, and may easily leap chapters.
As for the remaining products, the courses of econometrics and statistics are planned because I have got 4 years of statistics and 3 years of econometrics teaching behind me. I am also applying as an economic researcher, since as an economist analyst I can well handle theoretical analyses which come prior to econometric estimations. I have got 6 years of research as a professor-assistant for teaching and researching and 6 years of graduating researches. Since 2008 that I have been unemployed, I have thought about some flaws in theoretical economics. I have plenty of brainstorming texts which, if improved, should well predict current events. NdoJack Reg1 is not a product in it itself, it is an efficiency-enhancing internal process to get the other products, but could be itself a product if it were written as an executable application. NdoJack Reg1 is a wholly automatic application in Eviews which gives wholly commented or formatted results, and with it I target to ease common estimations and to estimate the estimations which are not accessible interactively. I seriously started to program my estimations in 2000. My 2003-DEA’s thesis and my 2004’s communication at a workshop were wholly automatic. Now I am improving it to get my knowledge extensively feasible and efficient.
Ultimately, NdoJack Research is not for hiring experts, but my launch pad to be myself hired as an expert and to get through adverse situation. I am undertaking emigration endeavor while being moneyless. In different conditions, I would even have applied as an independent worker, but in my current situation it only is feasible as an employee; so I am applying for a non-security or non-politic work in Israel as a quantitative analyst/economist analyst. If I am lucky, I shall apply for a work visa. I am isolated enough that it is also my valid way to return and I thank www.xplace.com to serve as my medium. Thereupon around I intend satisfying income, property right and a piece of land of mine that I really need; and thereafter to make my own iron and glass foundry which I should constitute as the project NdoJack Foundry, and which should be my life in elder days.
I am a right man who does not want to endure injustice or give in, not at all. I intend to come and pacifically be closer to the Israeli people, looking for property right through bearable opportunities. What I need is that you not hinder or size my seething activities, and I hope that you would kindly help me in my endeavor. My writing and programming will only be undertaken in my spare time. They are so tightly connected that I expect to finish them at the same time by one year from now.
I have no telephone. I recorded the telephone number of my brother Desire RIRAGENDANWA because the system requires it. I WILL not use it; my brother SHALL not use for this; and I will ask you not to use it. Would you please first let me know by email and I shall try to get one.
Motivation is the reason for action. Herein I present my motivation — that is, the why of this project — in two points: the background of the problem and the problem as wished for.
The background of problem concerns two issues, such as how my problem should be solved and patents. How my problem should be solved is limited by the titles company description and category description, where I reveal myself as a quantitative economist. The success of such researchers relies on the prediction power of their estimates, knowingly that the prediction power of a model depends on the soundness of its theoretical specification, the accuracy of data, and the quality of estimation. I am going to stress my motivation based only on what I value much; and which, I can say, is influenced by the elapsing time, my prospective bargaining power and emigration endeavor.
The elapsing time influences me because I am inactive and I may lose my bargaining power, an idea I do not bear. I used to be thinking on the economic theory; these times I gather and keep my econometric knowledge I have gained throughout my courses, personal endeavor and graduate researches. My motivation is also intended for gaining bargaining power in the labor world.
My prospective bargaining power should be my absolute advantage — or at least comparative advantage — to lead me to income, and I am luckier with econometrics than pure economics. In economics new ideas have little chance to pass, and may be dangerous to the thinker sometimes. An econometric writer, teacher or researcher does not need to go beyond the current economic theory. When you end up with results which contradict the established, two issues are plausible: either you conclude that the estimated is not workable; or you may see it an open window for theoretical rethinking. If the research is ordered and some change is needed, the change is susceptible to be digested; the one heralded by free independent theoretical research may not be digested. For those reasons, I more value econometrics to get me through adverse situation and to ease my emigration endeavor.
As for patents, the concept is inherent in new knowledge. We often create little (or nothing) even if the tiny creation is added to the existing knowledge. The literature review in applied econometrics should meet both economic and econometric exigency. My book does bring about no new knowledge in time series, but my task is to understand it thoroughly, gather the knowledge; write the book originally and get it published if am lucky, and then benefit from a copy-right. So far, I have not intended that my application be widely used (it is mine, my sweet, and whoever may be in possession of its programmed texts and benefiting from it is a thief), and I am programming it heavily software-depending. So, no patent is to be asked.
At last, the problem as wished for is to publish an econometric book and program an all-out estimation application. There are many books of applied econometrics, and of course this is an additional one. However, mine is intended to clear some ignored points in textbooks. For illustration, modeling is often ignored or eluded in applied econometrics whereas it conditions all the estimation understanding. In truth, it is delicate to write it, and maybe it is a reason why it is so often ignored despite its importance. Most books of applied econometrics treat time series models, but omit to consider time-varying parameters of a state-space model. Cointegration is now common knowledge in textbooks; however conditional error correction model and nonlinear cointegration are still only in reviews. Nonlinearity is often not deeply analyzed in textbooks; threshold autoregressive models are seldom analyzed. Not analyzing a concept is not considering it both internally and externally. I shall use the extensive knowledge in private knowledge transfer, like trainings. An all-out automatic estimation application is an efficient tool. As yet, without a program, it is costly to estimate a reliable TAR, to produce critical values (tens of thousands estimations).
NdoJack Research addresses two areas of specialty, econometric transfer and economic research, where the former consists of an econometric book and courses of statistics and econometrics. Then, NdoJack Research areas of specialty are subsumed in its major objectives below:
1-Applied Econometrics. Tome 1. Time Series
2-Courses of econometrics and statistics
3-Economic research
4-NdoJack Reg1.
1-The first objective “Applied Econometrics. Tome 1” consists of writing an econometric book of that name and content I want to publish something rapidly. Qualitative and pool data may also be processed on time series, but such data are little standard. Indeed, the former are less changing phenomena; the latter are piled. But as prospective project, they will be analyzed in the Tome 2.
A book is determined by its content and formats. The content is determined by existing knowledge (see business terms of service). The writing formats are most determined by an editor. So far, I have not contacted any editor. Any way humans like me, who are not famous and have not the official education, are believed on facts, not on words; and I wonder you may have the same feeling. Thereupon, I have a precursory work on all the chapters which is available upon request. The text is an A4-paper format and all should be shrunk easily —tables, frames and charts, especially the texts they contain.
2-The second objective is teaching “Courses of econometrics and statistics”. Writing a course is very different from writing a book. Courses represent public knowledge transfer which is codified. This is important because, certification is based upon public knowledge. Statistics is codified. Even if, econometrics, especially applied econometrics has part of art, some parts consist of known knowledge to be codified. Private knowledge transfer, like trainings, resorts to teaching the codified and non codified knowledge. Public knowledge transfer, like teachings, resorts to teaching the codified knowledge.
I agree with William A. Ward’s saying: “The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” My teachings are based on predetermined objectives. Teaching is a relation between the professor and a student for knowledge, where intrinsic and extrinsic quality of the product is confused with the student. Professionalism, ethic and reputation are important in the recurrence of such business.
I intend to teach econometrics. On starting, I prefer to teach the courses from Tome 1, having a vivid support. I intend to teach statistic descriptive. I used to have a script syllabus of the course, but now it is lost. However, if needed, I can craft another within a month, and its printed version, within in an additional month. As I have not yet taught mathematical statistics, I shall be waiting until it is over.
After the book when I expected to have mastered Hebrew, I should be able to teach again even I could do it in English now.
3-The third objective is “Economic research”. What I need is more of applied econometrics and less of pure economics, and most of quantitative analysis. Even in employee relationship a research has authorship, and the research document constitutes an authentic proof. Formats and contents are both important in cognitive transfer, and it is the reason why there are usages on article papers and working papers to become articles.
Tomorrow we may wake up reading breaking news that a way to use black energy to transport human to another star in two hours has been discovered. Even if such objective is not reached, intermediary results towards the objective are even the more important, since much time will be required. Such research is on human evolution. On the contrary, there will be no breaking news on estimating an equation with prediction ability. Such research is on human social reproduction.
Likewise, it will be difficult to be reckoned and funded as a research, or you may have to be an illustrious professor or to have worked in famous organization. A way to get through is personal endeavor and occupying conferences and publications. But even there are barriers to entry. I am aware about all of that and thank www-xplace.com to have let me come on the platform.
4-The objective of “NdoJack Reg1” is to estimate what a user estimates interactively and what a user can costly estimate interactively (as estimating a TAR or producing ranked critical statistics). It is completely automatic as to estimating models, commenting them running, comparing them, generating their ranked critical values, and presenting estimates or estimates-comparisons or critical-value outputs (see business terms of service).
What I am going to stress herein as my past achievements is what I consider a turning point or a mark of trust concerning teaching, economic research, econometrics, English and office automation. In general, I was hired as a professor-assistant to teach and research in 1996; which I did till 2002 when I went to graduate in Macrodynamic and International Finance in Nice, France.
Concerning teaching, from 1999 to 2002, during 4 years, I taught descriptive statistic providing lecture, tutorial and practical work. From 2001 to 2002, during 2 years, I taught seminar of econometrics providing lecture, tutorial and practical work. In 2009, as part-time job, I taught econometrics and seminar of econometrics. From 1996 to 2002, during 7 years I taught economic analysis providing either lecture or practical work, or both.
Concerning economic research, I have done many as a researcher, but what I value as a turning point is my 2001-consultancy: “Devising an operational framework for planning liquidities and the monetary base by the Bank of the Republic of Burundi, IDEC, May 2001”. A two-day workshop called as “Liquidities prediction” and in which Professor Jean NDEZAKO and Richard MANIRAKIZA were the speakers, was organized by the IDEC on April 04–05, 2001. Jean NDENZAKO used to be a professional researcher of IDEC, and I was an associated researcher of IDEC then. That was my first mark of trust and my first step in money; now I may even criticize a central banker. My turning point is my 2004-communication “Impacts of the spot Euro to the GDP gap and the unemployment rate gap in Europe” at the seminar “Le change: Régimes-Politiques-Volatilité-Risque, IIIème Journées d’Economie Financière, University of Centre, Mahdia Tunisia, April 23, 2004”. It was in the first year of my doctorate studies in Macrodynamic and International Finance, France. The work required me too much work than my 2003-DEA’s thesis “The impact of spot euro on the growth performances of the fifteen since the launch of the single currency”. Even if the 2003-DEA’s thesis stemmed from an all-out automatic application, it was standard estimation. The 2004-communication stemmed from an all-out automatic application estimating a system state-space model on interacting regions.
I am also happy that my fellow students I helped to finish their Master’s or PhD’s theses in France had met joyful end. In Burundi students would ask me advice on their memoir dissertation, but I do not know if they were coming to diffuse my critics in advance. Indeed, I would be a member or the president of the memoir jury. Last, I am proud that in the short time I was the chief of the department of political economics, I was one of those who initiated modeling, statistic, and econometric capability transfer.
Concerning writing support, I have provided tutorial and practical work of office automation from 2001 to 2002. Further, I attended a Master in Computer Information System, in Burundi from 1992 to 1996.
In general —I guess it is not a movie in my head, but real fact— that where I have been either as a student or worker I have left a mark and have been solicited either as a team member or chief. Any way such positions require and bring about relational competence, especially trust.
1—In 2008 the director of the research centre and some students asked me to run for member of the faculty board. It turned out that trust was real and I was elected member of the board of directors of the Faculté de droit, des sciences politiques, économiques et de gestion of the Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, in the start of 2008.
2—I was the chief of the computer-service of the faculty from 2000 to 2002.
3—I was the chief the department of political economics of the faculty from 2001 to 2002.
4—I was a member of the executive comity of the research centre of the faculty in 2002.
5—I represented of my class in the Master of computer information sciences from 1994 to 1996.
6—In 1986 I was an actor having the principal role in a piece of theatre (and in a little comedy in 1987), while reaping many nicknames.
I have no award and certification reckoning my writing, teaching or researching.
These bind me by 1 year.
I-The book
The book is made of ten following chapters: Modeling from hypotheses, Smearing a function on a problem, The simple-linear regression, The multiple-linear regression, The violation of hypotheses and therapy, ‘The nonlinear regression, The structural model or simultaneous-equations model, The generating process of time series, The vector-autoregressive model, and The cointegration and vector error-correction model.
It is more than academic writing and will be submitted to a specialized edition house, all information kept.
II-NdoJack Reg1
It is a non-network prototype in Eviews, but can be converted into any econometric package.
Estimation is one or many estimated models, and should be linear or linear state-space, linear system, linear state-space system, ARDL, VAR, VECM, CECM, TAR.
In interactive estimation what is needed is in the user’s brain; now it is in two types of editors: the data editors B and the estimation editor A.
A-The estimation editor is a two-dimensional table, made of one or multiple blocs, gathering the whole needed information on the models to be estimated.
A1-Series statuses go in the estimation editor columns.
A11-Series-genrerating
1-calculating series
2-Alternative series
3-Unit-roots tasks
A12-Non-series–generating
1-Dependent/independent series
2-Constrainted series: simple equation, VAR, VECM, CECM
3-etc.
A2. Estimation statuses go in the estimation editor lines.
1-One or a system-of-equations model. Each bloc of the estimation editor receives information on one equation. There are as many blocs as there are equations in the model. But the models, such as VAR, VARR (regional or cross-section VAR), VECM, CECM are edited compact in one bloc and disaggregated into blocs later.
2-Series are standard or pooled. In case of piled or cross-section estimation, further information is required in B.
3- Leads/lags structure and ability
4-Formating regression outputs
5-Commenting
6-Naming what is being estimated
7-Prediction power comparisons
8-Stepwise
9-Work files (WF)
10-Etc.
B-Data editors
Are tables of interactive- or automatic-recorded information.
1-Editor of series names which is never empty.
2-Editor of units (sections or countries) filled in if piled or cross-section estimation
3-Editor of pooled information filled in if piled or cross-section estimation
4-Editor of the units of a pool, filled in if piled estimation
C-Automatic application
C1-Conditions
Each estimation is ruled by the content of its own editors A and B, automatically recorded in case of sub-estimation.
The condition for an automatic commented estimation is to translate A and B into an artifact of helping tables that is friendly with the model entity-relation and a dynamic system, for each estimation.
General estimation is series-generating (unit-root [UR]) or sequential looping (stepwise, TAR, critical values) or recursive-looping (UR, TAR) estimation.
The condition for automatic general estimation is a global subroutine: it must freely reach for objects and change them.
So, some organization is needed as to objects naming, routines and running courses.
C2-Routines&Objects
Only the two independent main routines <StartTask> and <myEstimation> create objects.
Operation objects (in the default WF) are separated from data objects (in data WF).
Dynamic objects receive a prefix code of the current estimation.
Dynamic series receive a prefix (which estimation) and suffix code (which UR).
C3-Courses
NdoJack Reg1 is made of three running courses: creating the system and information edition (course I), preparing usable&WF tables (course II) and the proper estimation (course III).
In course I, the series must first be put into excel readable tables.
Running <StartTask> creates the default WF in which operation information is declared.
The estimation editor and the data editors are interactively or automatically recorded.
The course II is run by <myEstimation> of which the first task is to fresh up the system. Thus, it is indefinitely run with the course-I records.
The subroutine <GetHelpTables> checks the integrity of user editions and put related information into proper tables.
The subroutine <GetWFsReady> fills in data and gets data WF ready.
The course III is the proper estimation. The subroutine <GenrEstSeries> generates series as needed in A11.
The subroutine <GoRegression>, with its subroutines and tables, interprets the statuses from operation and data objects, handles the model under its algorithm and performs the needed estimation method (econometric internal algorithm).
What I am writing is an operational methodology — derived from courses of econometrics, personal and PhD’s researches — which addresses an important part of econometric art. It is made of theoretical and applied analyses, and implementations on Eviews. The learning strategy allows you fluid understanding and gets you concrete concepts; and thereby, gets you directly operational. Many concepts are explored, such as modeling, correlation, ordinary least squares, nonlinear least squares, VAR, cointegration, conditional ECM, threshold autoregressive regressions, etc. The book is aimed to students in economics, management, high commercial studies and engineers. The analysis is going to provide them important foundation of the required knowledge. It is aimed to students in econometrics. It is a prerequisite to tackle some aspects of the econometric method. It is aimed to practitioners that are the economists of firms (in charge of studies, statisticians, etc.) and to researchers. Understanding of the text requires the knowledge of algebra, descriptive statistics and mathematical statistics. It is a pleasant book and a concerned reader will find in it the needed notes, and may easily leap chapters.
As for the remaining products, the courses of econometrics and statistics are planned because I have got 4 years of statistics and 3 years of econometrics teaching behind me. I am also applying as an economic researcher, since as an economist analyst I can well handle theoretical analyses which come prior to econometric estimations. I have got 6 years of research as a professor-assistant for teaching and researching and 6 years of graduating researches. Since 2008 that I have been unemployed, I have thought about some flaws in theoretical economics. I have plenty of brainstorming texts which, if improved, should well predict current events. NdoJack Reg1 is not a product in it itself, it is an efficiency-enhancing internal process to get the other products, but could be itself a product if it were written as an executable application. NdoJack Reg1 is a wholly automatic application in Eviews which gives wholly commented or formatted results, and with it I target to ease common estimations and to estimate the estimations which are not accessible interactively. I seriously started to program my estimations in 2000. My 2003-DEA’s thesis and my 2004’s communication at a workshop were wholly automatic. Now I am improving it to get my knowledge extensively feasible and efficient.
Ultimately, NdoJack Research is not for hiring experts, but my launch pad to be myself hired as an expert and to get through adverse situation. I am undertaking emigration endeavor while being moneyless. In different conditions, I would even have applied as an independent worker, but in my current situation it only is feasible as an employee; so I am applying for a non-security or non-politic work in Israel as a quantitative analyst/economist analyst. If I am lucky, I shall apply for a work visa. I am isolated enough that it is also my valid way to return and I thank www.xplace.com to serve as my medium. Thereupon around I intend satisfying income, property right and a piece of land of mine that I really need; and thereafter to make my own iron and glass foundry which I should constitute as the project NdoJack Foundry, and which should be my life in elder days.
I am a right man who does not want to endure injustice or give in, not at all. I intend to come and pacifically be closer to the Israeli people, looking for property right through bearable opportunities. What I need is that you not hinder or size my seething activities, and I hope that you would kindly help me in my endeavor. My writing and programming will only be undertaken in my spare time. They are so tightly connected that I expect to finish them at the same time by one year from now.
I have no telephone. I recorded the telephone number of my brother Desire RIRAGENDANWA because the system requires it. I WILL not use it; my brother SHALL not use for this; and I will ask you not to use it. Would you please first let me know by email and I shall try to get one.
Motivation is the reason for action. Herein I present my motivation — that is, the why of this project — in two points: the background of the problem and the problem as wished for.
The background of problem concerns two issues, such as how my problem should be solved and patents. How my problem should be solved is limited by the titles company description and category description, where I reveal myself as a quantitative economist. The success of such researchers relies on the prediction power of their estimates, knowingly that the prediction power of a model depends on the soundness of its theoretical specification, the accuracy of data, and the quality of estimation. I am going to stress my motivation based only on what I value much; and which, I can say, is influenced by the elapsing time, my prospective bargaining power and emigration endeavor.
The elapsing time influences me because I am inactive and I may lose my bargaining power, an idea I do not bear. I used to be thinking on the economic theory; these times I gather and keep my econometric knowledge I have gained throughout my courses, personal endeavor and graduate researches. My motivation is also intended for gaining bargaining power in the labor world.
My prospective bargaining power should be my absolute advantage — or at least comparative advantage — to lead me to income, and I am luckier with econometrics than pure economics. In economics new ideas have little chance to pass, and may be dangerous to the thinker sometimes. An econometric writer, teacher or researcher does not need to go beyond the current economic theory. When you end up with results which contradict the established, two issues are plausible: either you conclude that the estimated is not workable; or you may see it an open window for theoretical rethinking. If the research is ordered and some change is needed, the change is susceptible to be digested; the one heralded by free independent theoretical research may not be digested. For those reasons, I more value econometrics to get me through adverse situation and to ease my emigration endeavor.
As for patents, the concept is inherent in new knowledge. We often create little (or nothing) even if the tiny creation is added to the existing knowledge. The literature review in applied econometrics should meet both economic and econometric exigency. My book does bring about no new knowledge in time series, but my task is to understand it thoroughly, gather the knowledge; write the book originally and get it published if am lucky, and then benefit from a copy-right. So far, I have not intended that my application be widely used (it is mine, my sweet, and whoever may be in possession of its programmed texts and benefiting from it is a thief), and I am programming it heavily software-depending. So, no patent is to be asked.
At last, the problem as wished for is to publish an econometric book and program an all-out estimation application. There are many books of applied econometrics, and of course this is an additional one. However, mine is intended to clear some ignored points in textbooks. For illustration, modeling is often ignored or eluded in applied econometrics whereas it conditions all the estimation understanding. In truth, it is delicate to write it, and maybe it is a reason why it is so often ignored despite its importance. Most books of applied econometrics treat time series models, but omit to consider time-varying parameters of a state-space model. Cointegration is now common knowledge in textbooks; however conditional error correction model and nonlinear cointegration are still only in reviews. Nonlinearity is often not deeply analyzed in textbooks; threshold autoregressive models are seldom analyzed. Not analyzing a concept is not considering it both internally and externally. I shall use the extensive knowledge in private knowledge transfer, like trainings. An all-out automatic estimation application is an efficient tool. As yet, without a program, it is costly to estimate a reliable TAR, to produce critical values (tens of thousands estimations).
NdoJack Research addresses two areas of specialty, econometric transfer and economic research, where the former consists of an econometric book and courses of statistics and econometrics. Then, NdoJack Research areas of specialty are subsumed in its major objectives below:
1-Applied Econometrics. Tome 1. Time Series
2-Courses of econometrics and statistics
3-Economic research
4-NdoJack Reg1.
1-The first objective “Applied Econometrics. Tome 1” consists of writing an econometric book of that name and content I want to publish something rapidly. Qualitative and pool data may also be processed on time series, but such data are little standard. Indeed, the former are less changing phenomena; the latter are piled. But as prospective project, they will be analyzed in the Tome 2.
A book is determined by its content and formats. The content is determined by existing knowledge (see business terms of service). The writing formats are most determined by an editor. So far, I have not contacted any editor. Any way humans like me, who are not famous and have not the official education, are believed on facts, not on words; and I wonder you may have the same feeling. Thereupon, I have a precursory work on all the chapters which is available upon request. The text is an A4-paper format and all should be shrunk easily —tables, frames and charts, especially the texts they contain.
2-The second objective is teaching “Courses of econometrics and statistics”. Writing a course is very different from writing a book. Courses represent public knowledge transfer which is codified. This is important because, certification is based upon public knowledge. Statistics is codified. Even if, econometrics, especially applied econometrics has part of art, some parts consist of known knowledge to be codified. Private knowledge transfer, like trainings, resorts to teaching the codified and non codified knowledge. Public knowledge transfer, like teachings, resorts to teaching the codified knowledge.
I agree with William A. Ward’s saying: “The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” My teachings are based on predetermined objectives. Teaching is a relation between the professor and a student for knowledge, where intrinsic and extrinsic quality of the product is confused with the student. Professionalism, ethic and reputation are important in the recurrence of such business.
I intend to teach econometrics. On starting, I prefer to teach the courses from Tome 1, having a vivid support. I intend to teach statistic descriptive. I used to have a script syllabus of the course, but now it is lost. However, if needed, I can craft another within a month, and its printed version, within in an additional month. As I have not yet taught mathematical statistics, I shall be waiting until it is over.
After the book when I expected to have mastered Hebrew, I should be able to teach again even I could do it in English now.
3-The third objective is “Economic research”. What I need is more of applied econometrics and less of pure economics, and most of quantitative analysis. Even in employee relationship a research has authorship, and the research document constitutes an authentic proof. Formats and contents are both important in cognitive transfer, and it is the reason why there are usages on article papers and working papers to become articles.
Tomorrow we may wake up reading breaking news that a way to use black energy to transport human to another star in two hours has been discovered. Even if such objective is not reached, intermediary results towards the objective are even the more important, since much time will be required. Such research is on human evolution. On the contrary, there will be no breaking news on estimating an equation with prediction ability. Such research is on human social reproduction.
Likewise, it will be difficult to be reckoned and funded as a research, or you may have to be an illustrious professor or to have worked in famous organization. A way to get through is personal endeavor and occupying conferences and publications. But even there are barriers to entry. I am aware about all of that and thank www-xplace.com to have let me come on the platform.
4-The objective of “NdoJack Reg1” is to estimate what a user estimates interactively and what a user can costly estimate interactively (as estimating a TAR or producing ranked critical statistics). It is completely automatic as to estimating models, commenting them running, comparing them, generating their ranked critical values, and presenting estimates or estimates-comparisons or critical-value outputs (see business terms of service).
What I am going to stress herein as my past achievements is what I consider a turning point or a mark of trust concerning teaching, economic research, econometrics, English and office automation. In general, I was hired as a professor-assistant to teach and research in 1996; which I did till 2002 when I went to graduate in Macrodynamic and International Finance in Nice, France.
Concerning teaching, from 1999 to 2002, during 4 years, I taught descriptive statistic providing lecture, tutorial and practical work. From 2001 to 2002, during 2 years, I taught seminar of econometrics providing lecture, tutorial and practical work. In 2009, as part-time job, I taught econometrics and seminar of econometrics. From 1996 to 2002, during 7 years I taught economic analysis providing either lecture or practical work, or both.
Concerning economic research, I have done many as a researcher, but what I value as a turning point is my 2001-consultancy: “Devising an operational framework for planning liquidities and the monetary base by the Bank of the Republic of Burundi, IDEC, May 2001”. A two-day workshop called as “Liquidities prediction” and in which Professor Jean NDEZAKO and Richard MANIRAKIZA were the speakers, was organized by the IDEC on April 04–05, 2001. Jean NDENZAKO used to be a professional researcher of IDEC, and I was an associated researcher of IDEC then. That was my first mark of trust and my first step in money; now I may even criticize a central banker. My turning point is my 2004-communication “Impacts of the spot Euro to the GDP gap and the unemployment rate gap in Europe” at the seminar “Le change: Régimes-Politiques-Volatilité-Risque, IIIème Journées d’Economie Financière, University of Centre, Mahdia Tunisia, April 23, 2004”. It was in the first year of my doctorate studies in Macrodynamic and International Finance, France. The work required me too much work than my 2003-DEA’s thesis “The impact of spot euro on the growth performances of the fifteen since the launch of the single currency”. Even if the 2003-DEA’s thesis stemmed from an all-out automatic application, it was standard estimation. The 2004-communication stemmed from an all-out automatic application estimating a system state-space model on interacting regions.
I am also happy that my fellow students I helped to finish their Master’s or PhD’s theses in France had met joyful end. In Burundi students would ask me advice on their memoir dissertation, but I do not know if they were coming to diffuse my critics in advance. Indeed, I would be a member or the president of the memoir jury. Last, I am proud that in the short time I was the chief of the department of political economics, I was one of those who initiated modeling, statistic, and econometric capability transfer.
Concerning writing support, I have provided tutorial and practical work of office automation from 2001 to 2002. Further, I attended a Master in Computer Information System, in Burundi from 1992 to 1996.
In general —I guess it is not a movie in my head, but real fact— that where I have been either as a student or worker I have left a mark and have been solicited either as a team member or chief. Any way such positions require and bring about relational competence, especially trust.
1—In 2008 the director of the research centre and some students asked me to run for member of the faculty board. It turned out that trust was real and I was elected member of the board of directors of the Faculté de droit, des sciences politiques, économiques et de gestion of the Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, in the start of 2008.
2—I was the chief of the computer-service of the faculty from 2000 to 2002.
3—I was the chief the department of political economics of the faculty from 2001 to 2002.
4—I was a member of the executive comity of the research centre of the faculty in 2002.
5—I represented of my class in the Master of computer information sciences from 1994 to 1996.
6—In 1986 I was an actor having the principal role in a piece of theatre (and in a little comedy in 1987), while reaping many nicknames.
I have no award and certification reckoning my writing, teaching or researching.
These bind me by 1 year.
I-The book
The book is made of ten following chapters: Modeling from hypotheses, Smearing a function on a problem, The simple-linear regression, The multiple-linear regression, The violation of hypotheses and therapy, ‘The nonlinear regression, The structural model or simultaneous-equations model, The generating process of time series, The vector-autoregressive model, and The cointegration and vector error-correction model.
It is more than academic writing and will be submitted to a specialized edition house, all information kept.
II-NdoJack Reg1
It is a non-network prototype in Eviews, but can be converted into any econometric package.
Estimation is one or many estimated models, and should be linear or linear state-space, linear system, linear state-space system, ARDL, VAR, VECM, CECM, TAR.
In interactive estimation what is needed is in the user’s brain; now it is in two types of editors: the data editors B and the estimation editor A.
A-The estimation editor is a two-dimensional table, made of one or multiple blocs, gathering the whole needed information on the models to be estimated.
A1-Series statuses go in the estimation editor columns.
A11-Series-genrerating
1-calculating series
2-Alternative series
3-Unit-roots tasks
A12-Non-series–generating
1-Dependent/independent series
2-Constrainted series: simple equation, VAR, VECM, CECM
3-etc.
A2. Estimation statuses go in the estimation editor lines.
1-One or a system-of-equations model. Each bloc of the estimation editor receives information on one equation. There are as many blocs as there are equations in the model. But the models, such as VAR, VARR (regional or cross-section VAR), VECM, CECM are edited compact in one bloc and disaggregated into blocs later.
2-Series are standard or pooled. In case of piled or cross-section estimation, further information is required in B.
3- Leads/lags structure and ability
4-Formating regression outputs
5-Commenting
6-Naming what is being estimated
7-Prediction power comparisons
8-Stepwise
9-Work files (WF)
10-Etc.
B-Data editors
Are tables of interactive- or automatic-recorded information.
1-Editor of series names which is never empty.
2-Editor of units (sections or countries) filled in if piled or cross-section estimation
3-Editor of pooled information filled in if piled or cross-section estimation
4-Editor of the units of a pool, filled in if piled estimation
C-Automatic application
C1-Conditions
Each estimation is ruled by the content of its own editors A and B, automatically recorded in case of sub-estimation.
The condition for an automatic commented estimation is to translate A and B into an artifact of helping tables that is friendly with the model entity-relation and a dynamic system, for each estimation.
General estimation is series-generating (unit-root [UR]) or sequential looping (stepwise, TAR, critical values) or recursive-looping (UR, TAR) estimation.
The condition for automatic general estimation is a global subroutine: it must freely reach for objects and change them.
So, some organization is needed as to objects naming, routines and running courses.
C2-Routines&Objects
Only the two independent main routines <StartTask> and <myEstimation> create objects.
Operation objects (in the default WF) are separated from data objects (in data WF).
Dynamic objects receive a prefix code of the current estimation.
Dynamic series receive a prefix (which estimation) and suffix code (which UR).
C3-Courses
NdoJack Reg1 is made of three running courses: creating the system and information edition (course I), preparing usable&WF tables (course II) and the proper estimation (course III).
In course I, the series must first be put into excel readable tables.
Running <StartTask> creates the default WF in which operation information is declared.
The estimation editor and the data editors are interactively or automatically recorded.
The course II is run by <myEstimation> of which the first task is to fresh up the system. Thus, it is indefinitely run with the course-I records.
The subroutine <GetHelpTables> checks the integrity of user editions and put related information into proper tables.
The subroutine <GetWFsReady> fills in data and gets data WF ready.
The course III is the proper estimation. The subroutine <GenrEstSeries> generates series as needed in A11.
The subroutine <GoRegression>, with its subroutines and tables, interprets the statuses from operation and data objects, handles the model under its algorithm and performs the needed estimation method (econometric internal algorithm).
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Shalom! I am coming in as an economist expert. I am going to tell you what I think an expert is in my domain, and you will be deciding whether I am an expert or a charlatan. An expert has public and private information on a domain. Public information results from public knowledge transfer. Private information results from individual (or tiny group) talent developed on behalf of natural endowment, endeavor or experience working in a domain. It is like art: average-man will not be able to handle the task successfully or efficiently, if such person has not been taught it or has not spent much time developing the concept. If the person can, she/he will no more be called average-man in that domain. Let us consider my domain, economics or ‘oikos nomos’, meaning ruling a house where ‘rule’ and ‘house’ are important concepts.
Concerning the rule, the objective of sciences is to understand natural or human phenomena, and uncover their generating rules. The material of economics is humans’ interactions for things, where they seek for surviving and riding the time. A economic phenomenon will be some concept representing the relation between human and things (for example A has 1 unit of money as income). The rule exists if some properties are experienced in particular conditions, and then can be determined and expressed mathematically — for you have to measure both independent and dependent phenomena as variables, and seemingly mathematics is the language of the universe. Thereupon, you may write Y, a dependent variable, as a function of k independent variables: Y=(X1,…,Xk). It is up to the researcher to determine the function form. Let us assume it simple, as economists/econometricians often simply, and consider it to be a linear equation combining variables and constants Y=A0+A1*X1+…+Ak*Xk. Econometrics only measures the As constants and probes whether they are reliable for the rule to be considered as true. The Xs variables are data phenomena measured by other fields like national or private accounting and statistics. Data do not fall by magical fingers snap. First, you must have hypotheses on the question and some knowledge of what is needed for it to be known; thereupon you can devise a rigorous observation plan, which can be experimental for accurate sciences or passive for social and astronomic sciences. The needed knowledge in economics is the economic theory. In the chain, the economic theory comes first, stating which equation it is about; next, econometrics proves it.
Concerning the house, the relation between humans and things may be tackled on the scale of an individual (often a household, and then the house is small) and things, or on the scale of all the individuals forming a homogenous group (often a country, and then the house is big) and things. When the small houses dully maximize their utility and the big house ends up unviable, one has to check both behaviors and have them match to lead to a viable system. Therefore, it is implied that a prediction from an economist expert will be successful if the following conjectures are true: the truthfulness of an economic theory which has to merge the two houses, the determination the true equation, the correct measure of phenomena (variables or data), the truthfulness of the econometric theory, and the correct measure of constants.
I am coming in as an expert in econometrics. For me, econometrics is one of the most difficult courses in the world, and I am lucky to understand it and can transfer it. I have taught econometrics by one year and seminar of econometrics by 3 years. If you say that it is easy field, shalom expert! The dependent and independent variables may be polluted by a time noise. Theoretical econometric proves that it has to be removed from data in such case, yet such removing may also remove some signal, a problem for applied econometrics. What means a lagged variable in the passage from high-frequency to low-frequency model? When some independent variables show loose colinearity, the stepwise method is often used, but the removal or introduction of a variable can enable or disable another. And when it is a system of equations how to perform that? The problem becomes more artistic when you have to program wholly automatic estimations: you have to know econometrics thoroughly and program an expert system. The results of my DEA thesis “MANIRAKIZA Richard, The impact of spot euro on the growth performances of the fifteen, since the single currency launch, CEMAFI-UNSA, September 2003, Nice” stemmed from a wholly automatic application implementing the stepwise and lagged variables. I estimated about thousands of estimations. “MANIRAKIZA Richard, Impacts of the spot Euro to the GDP gap and the unemployment rate gap in Europe, CEMAFI-UNSA, Nice, April 2004”, a communication at the workshop “Le change : Régimes-Politiques-Volatilité-Risque, IIIème Journées d’Economie Financière, April23, 2004, University of Centre, Mahdia Tunisia”, stemmed from a wholly automatic application implementing the SUR and state space methods. I estimated about ten thousands of estimations. If you suppose that normal human can estimate and format the results of 50 equations per workday, at least 200 days will be needed. If you think that this is not efficiency-enhancing, shalom expert! Now I am improving the application under the product NdoJack Reg1 of the company/project NdoJack Research.
I am also coming in as an expert in economic theory. Before going in France, I would end up with the estimates which did not support the textbook theory. I thought it due to the structure of developing countries. However, in the regard of the results of the two works above, I deduced the problem is theoretical, and thereby I was in trouble with my thesis “Euro, macroeconomic performances”, for it required too sophisticated econometrics, to be inventive in economic theory, to endorse some outlier theory, to mix them with the flawless existing, and thereafter to make the thinking accepted. What a difficult task! I can say that in 2007 I have already stated that a monetary crisis might happen, without the authorities seeing it coming, the monetary policy being impotent in the crisis. Again, in 2008, on exiting Europe, I had predicted that I crisis would happen in Europe by two years. When some people bring about new ideas, they bother the establishment taking interest in the established. You may evict an expert, but if the person is really an expert, you cannot evict the prediction. It is difficult to get new ideas implemented. Hyman P. Minsky and Stiglitz are outlier theorists whom I endorse some recommendations. Stiglitz asked for new rethinking; Minsky recommended change accepted by authorities. The recommendations only rest in peace in their books. On the brink of the World War II, Einstein asked Freud why as much violence. He answered him that violence is daily human nature. It is in human relations, it is within a couple. Even the rule of majority is some violence upon minority. And I also deduce that pricing is similar violence. Therefore, if it is not on behalf of a crisis, new ideas will difficultly pass; yet with a crisis, too many lose. I have some brainstorming about money and monetarism, corporation and the labor world. The conclusions support one another—and it is the condition. However, my priority is on econometrics and foundry, two activities to get me back to income and property right. Theoretical thinking as an economic researcher will come after I get stable. Shalom!
Concerning the rule, the objective of sciences is to understand natural or human phenomena, and uncover their generating rules. The material of economics is humans’ interactions for things, where they seek for surviving and riding the time. A economic phenomenon will be some concept representing the relation between human and things (for example A has 1 unit of money as income). The rule exists if some properties are experienced in particular conditions, and then can be determined and expressed mathematically — for you have to measure both independent and dependent phenomena as variables, and seemingly mathematics is the language of the universe. Thereupon, you may write Y, a dependent variable, as a function of k independent variables: Y=(X1,…,Xk). It is up to the researcher to determine the function form. Let us assume it simple, as economists/econometricians often simply, and consider it to be a linear equation combining variables and constants Y=A0+A1*X1+…+Ak*Xk. Econometrics only measures the As constants and probes whether they are reliable for the rule to be considered as true. The Xs variables are data phenomena measured by other fields like national or private accounting and statistics. Data do not fall by magical fingers snap. First, you must have hypotheses on the question and some knowledge of what is needed for it to be known; thereupon you can devise a rigorous observation plan, which can be experimental for accurate sciences or passive for social and astronomic sciences. The needed knowledge in economics is the economic theory. In the chain, the economic theory comes first, stating which equation it is about; next, econometrics proves it.
Concerning the house, the relation between humans and things may be tackled on the scale of an individual (often a household, and then the house is small) and things, or on the scale of all the individuals forming a homogenous group (often a country, and then the house is big) and things. When the small houses dully maximize their utility and the big house ends up unviable, one has to check both behaviors and have them match to lead to a viable system. Therefore, it is implied that a prediction from an economist expert will be successful if the following conjectures are true: the truthfulness of an economic theory which has to merge the two houses, the determination the true equation, the correct measure of phenomena (variables or data), the truthfulness of the econometric theory, and the correct measure of constants.
I am coming in as an expert in econometrics. For me, econometrics is one of the most difficult courses in the world, and I am lucky to understand it and can transfer it. I have taught econometrics by one year and seminar of econometrics by 3 years. If you say that it is easy field, shalom expert! The dependent and independent variables may be polluted by a time noise. Theoretical econometric proves that it has to be removed from data in such case, yet such removing may also remove some signal, a problem for applied econometrics. What means a lagged variable in the passage from high-frequency to low-frequency model? When some independent variables show loose colinearity, the stepwise method is often used, but the removal or introduction of a variable can enable or disable another. And when it is a system of equations how to perform that? The problem becomes more artistic when you have to program wholly automatic estimations: you have to know econometrics thoroughly and program an expert system. The results of my DEA thesis “MANIRAKIZA Richard, The impact of spot euro on the growth performances of the fifteen, since the single currency launch, CEMAFI-UNSA, September 2003, Nice” stemmed from a wholly automatic application implementing the stepwise and lagged variables. I estimated about thousands of estimations. “MANIRAKIZA Richard, Impacts of the spot Euro to the GDP gap and the unemployment rate gap in Europe, CEMAFI-UNSA, Nice, April 2004”, a communication at the workshop “Le change : Régimes-Politiques-Volatilité-Risque, IIIème Journées d’Economie Financière, April23, 2004, University of Centre, Mahdia Tunisia”, stemmed from a wholly automatic application implementing the SUR and state space methods. I estimated about ten thousands of estimations. If you suppose that normal human can estimate and format the results of 50 equations per workday, at least 200 days will be needed. If you think that this is not efficiency-enhancing, shalom expert! Now I am improving the application under the product NdoJack Reg1 of the company/project NdoJack Research.
I am also coming in as an expert in economic theory. Before going in France, I would end up with the estimates which did not support the textbook theory. I thought it due to the structure of developing countries. However, in the regard of the results of the two works above, I deduced the problem is theoretical, and thereby I was in trouble with my thesis “Euro, macroeconomic performances”, for it required too sophisticated econometrics, to be inventive in economic theory, to endorse some outlier theory, to mix them with the flawless existing, and thereafter to make the thinking accepted. What a difficult task! I can say that in 2007 I have already stated that a monetary crisis might happen, without the authorities seeing it coming, the monetary policy being impotent in the crisis. Again, in 2008, on exiting Europe, I had predicted that I crisis would happen in Europe by two years. When some people bring about new ideas, they bother the establishment taking interest in the established. You may evict an expert, but if the person is really an expert, you cannot evict the prediction. It is difficult to get new ideas implemented. Hyman P. Minsky and Stiglitz are outlier theorists whom I endorse some recommendations. Stiglitz asked for new rethinking; Minsky recommended change accepted by authorities. The recommendations only rest in peace in their books. On the brink of the World War II, Einstein asked Freud why as much violence. He answered him that violence is daily human nature. It is in human relations, it is within a couple. Even the rule of majority is some violence upon minority. And I also deduce that pricing is similar violence. Therefore, if it is not on behalf of a crisis, new ideas will difficultly pass; yet with a crisis, too many lose. I have some brainstorming about money and monetarism, corporation and the labor world. The conclusions support one another—and it is the condition. However, my priority is on econometrics and foundry, two activities to get me back to income and property right. Theoretical thinking as an economic researcher will come after I get stable. Shalom!